Democratic states are substantially more progressive than Republican states
but even Democratic strongholds fall far short of progressive goals
Every time the Eternal Voting Discourse returns, I hear the same argument from socialists who support voting 3rd party:
"Both parties are the same. Democrat or Republican, blue or red, nothing changes."
Whenever you hear someone talk about "smashing the duopoly" or "rotating villains", they almost certainly believe in this claim.
It's a popular belief. For example, this meme got 7.3k likes in 2021 and 3.1k likes in 2022:
It's also wrong. The graphs below use policy data to show that Dem-run states are better than Rep-run states on nearly every policy issue.
However, they also show that even states with strong Dem majorities fail at progressive goals.
Queer Rights
The strongest leftist case for Democrats is on queer rights.
For example, consider gender-affirming care for trans youth, which became a national topic of debate in the last 2 years:
3/4 of Rep-run states have banned it. (All such bans are currently halted in courts.)
2/3 of Dem-run states have legally protected it.
SOURCE: LGBT MAP 2023, pages Bans on Best Practice Medical Care for Transgender Youth and Transgender Healthcare "Shield" Laws
It's not just healthcare.
On virtually every queer issue -- spousal rights, visitation, discrimination, bullying, adoption -- Dem-run states are absurdly far ahead of Rep-run states.
Here's gay rights:
SOURCE: LGBT MAP 2020, Mapping LGBTQ Equality: 2010 to 2020
And here's trans rights:
SOURCE: LGBT MAP 2020, Mapping LGBTQ Equality: 2010 to 2020
Abortion Rights
After the Supreme Court (6R, 3D) ended Roe v Wade:
Every single Rep-run state which could ban or heavily restrict abortion did so.
(The rest -- Montana, Kansas, and Florida -- have a state constitutional right to abortion.)
7/8 of Dem-run states have actively protected access to abortion.
SOURCE: Center for Reproductive Rights 2023, After Roe Fell: Abortion Laws by State
Of course, that's not nearly enough -- Biden ignored requests by progressives, such as AOC, to use federal lands to offer access to reproductive healthcare. At a larger level, centrist Democrats refuse to support "packing" the Court or to support a Supreme Court reform plan, such as the one proposed by notorious socialist Pete Buttigieg.
Drug War
On marijuana policy, Democrats are far ahead of Republicans:
Every Dem-run state has decriminalized or fully legalized marijuana.
Just 2/5 of Rep-run states have done so.
SOURCE: DISA 2023, Marijuana Legality by State
Biden's Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently asked the Drug Enforcement Agency to reschedule marijuana from Class I to Class III, which makes it easier to sell (in states where legalized) and to research. However, Biden had promised to fully decriminalize it, but has not done so.
Mass Incarceration
Criminal justice is a great example of a policy area where Democrats are substantially better than Republicans, but far short of progressive priorities:
The median Rep state incarcerates 8 people in 1,000.
That's 10 times higher than the median rich country.
The median Dem state incarcerates 4 in 1,000.
That's still 5 times higher than the median rich country.
SOURCE: Prison Policy Institute 2021, Appendix 1: State Data States of Incarceration: The Global Context 2021
Despite having 2 times lower incarceration rates, Dem-run states have similar (or slightly lower) rates of violent crime:
SOURCE: Prison Policy Institute 2021, Appendix 1: State Data States of Incarceration: The Global Context 2021
Working Conditions
On economic issues, Democrats are again substantially better than Republicans, but again fall far short of progressive priorities.
For example, Dem states have much higher minimum wages than Rep states -- shown below as percent of a state-specific living wage -- but not one Dem state reaches 50% of a living wage:
SOURCE: Oxfam 2020, The Best and Worst States to Work in America - 2020
Similarly, only Dem states have any paid family leave -- but only 1 in 3 do! The United States is just one of nine countries worldwide that do not provide paid maternity leave.
SOURCE: Oxfam 2020, The Best and Worst States to Work in America - 2020
It's almost comical how much better Dem states do on OxFam's index of Best States to Work In, which combines a measure of wages against living costs, strength worker protection, and ease of worker organization:
SOURCE: Oxfam 2020, The Best and Worst States to Work in America - 2020
The more measures we add, the clearer this picture gets: Dem-run states are better for workers than Rep-run states.
But most of this difference is just because Rep states are so bad for workers. Even states with large Dem majorities fall short of average European countries (and far short of social democracy).
Unionization
For another example where Dem states fall short, take workers' right to organize.
Dem-run states are far ahead of Rep-run states on "Right to Work" laws, which destroy unions' ability to collectively bargain with employers.
7/8 of Rep states have Right to Work .
These are worse than any Euro country.
7/8 of Dem states do not.
These states are about as good as the worst ~1/4 of Euro countries.
SOURCE: Oxfam 2020, The Best and Worst States to Work in America - 2020
About 2/3 of European countries have mandatory or widespread sectoral bargaining, where the union contract covers an entire economic sector.
Zero US states do.
SOURCE: Andrias 2019, A Seat at the Table: Sectoral Bargaining for the Common Good
Just 5 states (all Dem-run) have wage boards, which CAN serve a similar role to sectoral bargaining, IF the state government uses them to do so.
But of those 5 states, only one -- New York -- has recently used theirs. (NY raised wages for fast food workers in 2016.)
Any Dem-run state could create one. None have yet done so.
SOURCE: Dube 2020, Rebuilding U.S. labor market wage standards
Healthcare
Healthcare is another area where states with strong Dem majorities come up short. Nearly all rich countries have achieved universal healthcare, using four main models.
Half a dozen built single-payer, public-provider models (such as the United Kingdom and the "Nordic" countries), in which the vast majority of healthcare providers are public employees.
Half a dozen built single-payer, private-provider models (such as Canada) in which health insurance pays the fees from private healthcare providers.
Others have multi-payer, private-provider systems (such as France, which provides several separate public subsidized insurance schemes and extremely generous coverage).
A dozen built public-option, mandatory-coverage models (such as Germany, which began that program in 1883).
Why am I telling you all this? It makes clear just how far the US is behind most rich countries, even in states with strong Dem majorities.
For example, just four states have a public health insurance option -- all of which launched after 2020. Minnesota's was only passed this May, after Democrats won a narrow majority in the Legislature.
Source: Monahan and O'Brien 2023, States Move Forward with Public Option Programs, but Differ in How They Select Insurance Carriers AND Dreher 2023, Minnesota passes public option plan
No US state has single-payer healthcare.
Source: Monahan and O'Brien 2023, States Move Forward with Public Option Programs, but Differ in How They Select Insurance Carriers
And no US state has achieved healthcare coverage above 98%.
What about the federal government?
The graphs above exploit federalism to show how differences in partisan power result in substantial policy differences.
It's reasonable to ask: Why don't we see these differences at the federal level?
There are many reasons, but the most important two are simple:
Status quo bias: The federal government has more roadblocks to policy change than state governments. The filibuster alone requires that any policy change must have 60% support in the Senate. As a result, state policy changes faster than federal policy.
Smaller margins: About 1 in 3 states have a partisan margin -- the absolute difference between votes for Reps and Dems -- of over 10%. In contrast, the last Congress with those margins was decades ago: 1992 in the House and 1976 in the Senate. As a result, state policy is more extreme than federal policy.
When you add the two together, you get federal gridlock.
What do we learn from this?
1st: Dems are much better than Reps.
On every policy area, even weakly-Democratic states are substantially better than weakly-Republican states.
If you want more queer rights, abortion rights, drug decriminalization, decarceration, worker protections, or union rights: You want Reps to lose, badly.
The parties are not the same. It's not even close.
2nd: Voting Dem is not enough.
Even strong Dem states fail basic progressive goals.
If you want to re-unionize America, healthcare for all, or even just paid sick leave: You need to replace centrist Dems with progressives, through realignment or ranked-choice voting.
We need a mass movement that can make demands & remove those who refuse, to pull politics left.
Just voting -- whether for Dem or Green or [Tiny Socialist Party] -- builds nothing.
Socialists should vote for the leftmost viable candidate (likely a Democrat) and then get back to organizing.
What can you do?
For the first time in decades, that mass movement has started to form.
There were 15,000 organized socialists in 1990. Today, there are 120,000.
Unions are more aggressive now than any time since 2000.
Let's build social democracy in America -- and more.
Join the Democratic Socialists of America now -- or read five reasons why you should.
Self-reflection
Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.
— Joseph "No Gods, No Masters, Nothing Will Fundamentally Change" Biden, 2020
Leftists who support voting Democrat mostly fall somewhere along a three-part spectrum:
Buying-Time Voters: Dems aren't better than Reps, but voting Dem slows Rep fascism
Lesser-Evil Voters: Dems are barely better than Reps, but that difference is enough
Greater-Good Voters: Dems are better than Reps, but should be made better yet
(For example, the 2nd-largest socialist pundit on Earth, Vaush, usually argues for positions #1 and #2. See examples in his debate with The Vanguard podcast.)
I have long argued that leftists should vote for the Democratic party. Previously, my arguments usually fell between category #2 and #3 above. I usually held that Democrats were "rainbow capitalists" -- progressive on social issues, but centrist on economic issues.
Leftward realignment in the Democratic Party is not just possible: It's already happening. That makes the case for an inside-outside strategy far more compelling. Militant unions (outside) and progressive & socialist Dems (inside) have already passed policy, like the Build Public Renewables Act, that fall just within the realm of "non-reformist reforms" -- reforms that slowly transfer power from the owning class to the working class.
Our options aren't just to break with the Dems or to escape the Dems. We can and should accelerate that realignment.
Conclusions and shilling
In short: Democratic states are far better than Republican states on every major policy area. However, even Democratic states fall short of progressive (and far short of socialist) goals.
I'm writing blogs on socialist and progressive topics. To support my work:
Subscribe on Substack:
Great article, thanks!