Those Russian annexation referendums in eastern Ukraine are obvious bullshit

Yesterday 2022 September 27, Russian state media RIA Novosti reported the results of the Russian-organized referendums in each Russian-occupied region of Ukraine.

Unsurprisingly, each region overwhelmingly voted to join Russia, with "yes" allegedly averaging 94.5% of votes with turnout averaging 88.1%. In Donetsk, "yes" allegedly got 99.23% of votes with turnout of 97.51%.

If it's not obvious, these referenda are bullshit. Here's why:

Summary of results

The table below summarizes the following:

• polling conducted the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), which show very weak support for Russian annexation

• the official referendum results announced by Russian state media (in 2014 and 2022)

• the leaked Russian President's Council on Human Rights report, which showed the "true" results and turnout in Crimea in 2014

You can clearly see that KIIS polling results and the leaked report results differ sharply from official results. (All sources are linked and screenshotted at the bottom.)

KIIS results show support for Russian annexation at ~30% or less for most regions, highest in Crimea at ~40%. The leaked results for Crimea claim that just (50%-60%) of voters voted for annexation, at just 30%-50% turnout. (Anti-annexation voters plausibly might've been scared away by the Russian soldiers overseeing said referendum.) In short: Leaked results suggest annexation has near-majority support. Polls suggest annexation has well-below-majority support. Neither suggests annexation has overwhelming majority support.

Yet the official Russian results show that over 96% of people in Crimea voted for Russian annexation, and 87% or higher of people in other eastern regions voted for Russian annexation. (Turnout for the 2012 Ukrainian elections was just just ~54.7% in these 5 oblasts.) In short: Official Russian results assert that annexation has overwhelming majority support and inspired turnout nearly twice the turnout rates for regular elections.

To trust the 2014 referendum results in Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk demands that we believe Russia managed to convince between 50% and 90% of people to vote for annexation, in less than a month. To trust the 2022 referendum results requires much the same belief. In short: These referenda are obvious bullshit.

This claim becomes even stronger when we look at results for specific regions.

Region-specific results

Donetsk:

In 2014 April, a KIIS poll reported that 27.5% of Donetsk residents supported joining Russia and 52.2% opposed. Joining Russia is at -24.7%.

In 2014 May, Russian state media reported that 89% of Donetsk voters supported Donetsk independence (de-facto joining Russia) and 10.2% opposed. Joining Russia is at +78.9% -- a 103.6pp shift in net approval, just one month later. This referendum is clearly bullshit.

In 2022 September, Russian state media reported that 99.23% of Donetsk voters supported joining Russia and 0.62% opposed, with 97.51% turnout. Nothing on Earth gets 99% support with 98% turnout. (For comparison: North Korea, that bastion of democracy, claims similar >99% support electoral victories.) This referendum is clearly bullshit, modeled on the same bullshit as in 2014.

Lugansk / Luhansk:

In 2014 April, a KIIS poll reported that 30.3% of Luhansk residents supported joining Russia and 51.9% opposed. Joining Russia is at -21.6%.

In 2014 May, Russian state media reported that 96.2% of Luhansk voters supported Luhansk independence (de-facto joining Russia) and 3.2% opposed. Joining Russia is at +93.0% -- a 114.6pp shift in net approval, just one month later. This referendum is clearly bullshit.

In 2022 September, Russian state media reported that 92.6% of Luhansk voters supported joining Russia, with 85.4% turnout. Those opposed were not reported. This referendum is clearly bullshit, modeled on the same bullshit as in 2014.

Kherson:

In 2014 April, a KIIS poll reported that 3.5% of Kherson residents supported joining Russia and 84.6% opposed. Joining Russia is at -81.1%.

In 2022 September, Russian state media reported that 98.4% of Kherson voters supported joining Russia and 1.0% opposed, with 92.6% turnout. Joining Russia is at +97.42% -- a 178.52pp shift in net approval, just eight years later. More importantly, nothing on Earth gets 98% support with 93% turnout. This referendum is clearly bullshit.

Zaporozhye / Zaporizhia:

In 2014 April, a KIIS poll reported that 6.2% of Zaporizhia residents supported joining Russia and 81.5% opposed. Joining Russia is at -75.30%.

In 2022 September, Russian state media reported that 87.1% of Zaporizhia voters supported joining Russia and 12.1% opposed, with 78.9% turnout. Joining Russia is at +75.00% -- a 150.30pp shift in net approval, just eight years later. This referendum is clearly bullshit.

Crimea:

Crimea is more complicated. Prior to Russia's invasion in 2014, some pollsters found majority support for Russian annexation. For example, this 2011 United Nations Development Programme poll found that 11% preferred independence, 41% preferred being an "autonomous subject of Russia", and 19%+12%+6% = 37% preferred some kind of Ukrainian status:

It's plausible that, in a truly fair referendum, a majority of Crimeans would have voted for Russian annexation.

Of course, the official Russian results couldn't be satisfied with a mere majority: According to Russian state media, in March 2014, 96.77% of Crimeans voted for annexation while 2.51% voted against, at 94.26% turnout. Again: Nothing on Earth gets 97% support at 94% turnout.

Unfortunately for Putin, the Russian President's Council on Human Rights didn't get the memo. On 2014 April 27, they released a report titled "Проблемы жителей Крыма [Problems of Crimean residents]", which claimed that "в Крыму по разным данным за присоединение к России проголосовали 50-60 % избирателей при общей явке в 30-50 % [in Crimea, according to various sources, 50-60% of voters voted for joining Russia, with a total turnout of 30-50%]".

The report has since been deleted.

These leaked results are plausible. They suggest a slim majority of Crimeans voted for Russian annexation, immediately after Russian invasion, in a low-turnout election -- and they also completely destroy the credibility of the official Russian results, which claim an overwhelming majority and overwhelming turnout.

In short: You shouldn't trust a word Russian state media says about these referenda.

Conclusion and shilling

In short: Each one of the Russian-backed referenda is clearly bullshit. Previous polling and leaked reports sharply disagree with official results, which claim implausibly high support for annexation.

Anyone who pretends these referenda are democratic should either be shamed as a Russian shill or embarrassed at their total failure of reasoning.

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Sources

• KIIS poll: 2013 and 2014 February 8-18: https://archive.ph/QA6oK

• KIIS poll: 2014 April 8-16: https://archive.ph/aycDU

• Leaked report: Russian President's Council on Human Rights: 2014 April 27: https://archive.ph/dbq56p

• Official results: Crimea 2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum

• Official results: Donetsk 2014: https://archive.ph/4gFhp

• Official results: Luhansk 2014: https://archive.ph/Q5zwO

• Official results: Donetsk, Kherson, Lugansk, Zaporozhye: https://archive.ph/wip/VEAA5